With 86% of ballots tallied, Netanyahu's bloc of right‑wing, far‑right and ultra‑orthodox parties is poised for 53 seats, edging Gadi Eisenkot's coalition, which trails with 48.
Arab parties, projected to secure 19 seats, now hold the balance of power, a first for the 21% Arab electorate that could sway the government.
The president will appoint a prime ministerial candidate; Netanyahu, as caretaker, can leverage incumbency to broker a unity government that may incorporate opposition leaders like Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman.
If no coalition forms, a second election is likely, a scenario analysts say could entrench Netanyahu's dominance.
Netanyahu's post‑election address hailed a "strong right‑wing national government" and urged cooperation with U.S. President Donald Trump to confront Iran, reinforcing the strategic alliance.