Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, a central figure in Kerala’s political landscape and leader of the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), is facing an unexpected challenge in Dharmadam, one of the most watched constituencies in the 2026 state elections. After two rounds of counting concluded on the morning of May 4, Vijayan slipped to second place, overtaken by United Democratic Front (UDF) contender V.P. Abdul Rasheed, who built a lead of 2,523 votes. The result marks a reversal from the initial tally, where the LDF candidate held a narrow advantage, suggesting a late surge in opposition support.

Dharmadam, located in the Kannur district—a traditional Left stronghold—has been Vijayan’s electoral base since 2016. His potential defeat would not only unseat a sitting chief minister but also symbolize a significant erosion of LDF influence in northern Kerala, where governance issues and internal party dynamics have fueled voter disquiet. The UDF’s momentum reflects a broader alliance strategy that appears to have successfully mobilized anti-incumbency sentiment, particularly among younger voters and sections of the Muslim electorate, who may have shifted support from the LDF to the Congress-led coalition.

Statewide trends remain fluid, but the early lead in Dharmadam offers a psychological boost to the UDF and raises questions about the LDF’s ability to secure a third consecutive term. The 2026 elections are widely seen as a referendum on the Left government’s performance, particularly in handling economic stagnation, public sector reforms, and post-pandemic recovery. While the final outcome will depend on results from closely contested seats across central and southern Kerala, the contest in Dharmadam has already emerged as a barometer of shifting political tides.

Looking ahead, a loss for Vijayan would trigger a leadership review within the CPI(M) and could reshape alliance equations in Kerala’s coalition-driven politics. Even if the LDF retains power through a narrow legislative majority, the symbolic impact of losing its chief minister’s seat may embolden opposition forces and influence national perceptions of the Left’s viability. The Election Commission is expected to declare final results within 24 hours, after which party leaders will assess the mandate and initiate government formation procedures.