Kerala has a long history of changing governments every election. This cycle, known as the 'revolving door,' was almost a given for nearly 35 years. However, in 2021, the LDF bucked this trend and won a second straight term. The question on everyone's mind was whether this was due to strong governance or just a fluke. Now, in 2026, as the counting begins, the same question is being asked.

The LDF had positioned their 2021 victory as a referendum on their pandemic response and crisis management. At first, it seemed to work, but as time went on, the voters began to see the LDF's weaknesses. The area under paddy cultivation decreased by 39% over two decades, and rice production fell by 10.5% in 2023-24 compared to the previous year. Youth unemployment remained high, with a 27.7% unemployment rate among Keralites aged 15 to 29. The out-migration to Gulf countries continued, with approximately 2.2 million Keralites moving abroad.

The UDF, led by VD Satheesan, emerged as a strong critic of the government. They questioned government policies with data and evidence, rather than resorting to hartals or bandhs. The Congress opposition bench improved its assembly performance, and the Indian Union Muslim League strengthened its presence in North Kerala.

Kerala has historically voted out governments after one term. The 2021 victory was an anomaly, and now, it seems that the voters are returning to their old pattern. The LDF's agriculture policy has clearly faltered, and their governance image has weakened. The Sabarimala gold theft case damaged the Left front's credibility, and disputes with health workers became public.

The UDF is predicted to win at least 78 to 90 seats, according to an exit poll by Axis My India. The exit poll said the LDF is likely to take home 49-62 seats in the southern state. The BJP is also predicted to expand its footprint in the state, winning 7 seats.

The UDF's campaign was strong, with coordinated messaging from leaders across the alliance. This differed from 2021, when internal conflicts played out publicly within Congress and alliance partners. Senior Left leaders departed the party, and former minister G Sudhakaran even decided to contest as an independent candidate.

The writing is on the wall for the LDF. Kerala voters seem to be returning to their traditional pattern of alternating governments. The UDF is poised to win, and the Left Democratic Front is facing a tough challenge.