The Kerala assembly elections are turning out to be a closely watched contest, with the United Democratic Front (UDF) gaining momentum. According to recent exit polls, the Congress-led alliance is likely to secure a comfortable majority with a vote share of 38.5 per cent. This means the UDF could win anywhere between 88 and 92 seats in the 140-member assembly.

The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) is trailing behind, projected to secure only 42 to 46 seats. This decline could be attributed to the anti-incumbency factor, which seems to be impacting the ruling front. The exit polls also suggest that the LDF's appeal remains heavily concentrated around the incumbent Chief Minister, Pinarayi Vijayan.

One of the key factors in the UDF's success is the leadership perception of KC Venugopal. According to the exit polls, Venugopal has emerged as the most impactful leader shaping the election narrative, with an influence rating of 21.4 per cent. This is a significant factor, as it indicates that Venugopal's presence is having a major impact on voter sentiment.

The chief ministerial race remains tight, with VD Satheeshan leading the preference chart. However, Venugopal is closely following, with 17.8 per cent of the vote share. The survey also highlights a "packed middle" in the leadership race, with several other candidates garnering support. This suggests that while the UDF benefits from multiple strong faces, the LDF's appeal remains heavily concentrated around the incumbent Chief Minister.

The exit polls also reveal that the NDA is maintaining a stable base, with a vote share of 20.2 per cent. However, this is not enough to alter the statewide picture, as the UDF is dominating the narrative in the Malabar region and widening the gap in Central Kerala. Overall, the exit polls suggest that the UDF is likely to emerge victorious in the Kerala assembly elections, with KC Venugopal playing a key role in shaping the narrative.

The leadership perception of Venugopal is a significant factor in the UDF's success. His influence rating of 21.4 per cent indicates that he is having a major impact on voter sentiment. This is likely due to his strong presence in the election narrative and his ability to connect with voters. Venugopal's emergence as a key player in the UDF's campaign has helped to boost the party's chances of winning.

The chief ministerial race remains a closely contested issue, with several candidates vying for the top spot. VD Satheeshan is currently leading the preference chart, but Venugopal is closely following. The survey also highlights the "packed middle" in the leadership race, with several other candidates garnering support. This suggests that while the UDF benefits from multiple strong faces, the LDF's appeal remains heavily concentrated around the incumbent Chief Minister.