The Trinamool Congress has lost its hold on West Bengal after the 2026 Assembly elections, with a division in Muslim voter support emerging as a decisive factor. Once a consolidated base for the party, the minority vote fragmented across the Left-ISF alliance, the Congress, and Humayun Kabir's Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP), eroding Trinamool's electoral advantage in critical constituencies.

The 2011 shift of Muslim voters from the Left Front to Trinamool had propelled Mamata Banerjee to power, but 15 years later, that alignment has unravelled. Exit polls and constituency data indicate significant vote shares moving to opposition coalitions, particularly in central and southern districts where minority populations are concentrated.

The split weakened Trinamool's performance in close contests, enabling gains by rival alliances. Election Commission figures confirm reduced margins in previously safe seats, with the Left-ISF bloc making inroads in areas where Trinamool relied on minority-majority voting patterns.

The new government will be formed by the alliance securing the majority, with the Election Commission expected to declare results formally on May 5. The West Bengal Governor has called for a session of the newly elected Assembly to convene by May 10.